ISSN : 2663-2187

Interconnectedness of Arab Stock Markets, Oil, and Agricultural Commodities: Insights from a Frequency TVP-VAR Model

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Anfal Ayad Hamood, Samad Hekmati Farid and Shahab Jahangiri
ยป doi: 10.48047/AFJBS.6.7.2024.4402-4414

Abstract

This study investigates the interconnectedness between the stock markets of Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Iraq) and the prices of oil and agricultural commodities, highlighting its implications for global economic stability and regional financial resilience. Employing the Frequency Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (Frequency TVP-VAR) model, the analysis spans from 2010 to 2023 and reveals both short-term and long-term interdependencies among these markets. The findings show that oil exporting countries are directly impacted by oil price volatility, which affects government revenues and economic growth, while oil-importing countries face inflationary pressures due to rising energy costs. The study also identifies agricultural commodities as both transmitters and receivers of risk, with complex spillover effects driven by external shocks, market conditions, and geopolitical tensions. These insights provide valuable guidance for portfolio management, investment strategies, and policy decisions in an environment characterized by high price volatility and uncertainty.

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